New Truveta research published in JAMA Network Open reveals declining timeliness in childhood MMR vaccination and identifies early predictors of missed immunizations
BELLEVUE, Wash., Jan. 02, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Truveta today announced the publication of new peer-reviewed research in JAMA Network Open that provides one of the most comprehensive and timely analyses to date on childhood measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination trends in the United States. The study, which evaluated more than 320,000 children with regular access to care across Truveta Data, found that timely receipt of the first MMR vaccine has declined since the COVID-19 pandemic, coinciding with the highest number of measles cases reported in the US since measles was declared eliminated in 2000.
The study, “Delayed or Absent First Dose of Measles, Mumps, and Rubella Vaccination,” led by Truveta Research, identifies early indicators of delayed or missed MMR vaccination—most notably whether infants receive their recommended 2- and 4-month vaccines on time. Children who were late on their early-series vaccines were 6 to 7 times more likely not to receive any MMR vaccine by age two.
Key findings
According to the study published today in JAMA Network Open:
- Timely MMR vaccination decreased by 3 percentage points between 2021 and 2024, dropping from 79.9% to 76.9%.
- The proportion of children with no MMR vaccine by age two is rising: increasing from 5.3% in 2020 to 7.7% in 2024.
- The strongest predictors of missing the MMR vaccine were late receipt of 2-month vaccines (AOR 6.96) and 4-month vaccines (AOR 6.16).
- Declines were also observed across multiple early-childhood vaccine series, signaling broader reductions in vaccine timeliness during a period marked by growing hesitancy and misinformation.
- These trends emerge as the US reported 2,065 measles cases in 2025 and is at risk for losing elimination status later this month, which has been maintained since 2000.
A critical opportunity for early intervention
Because vaccine delays early in a child’s life strongly predict later missed MMR doses, the authors emphasize the need for clinicians to intervene as soon as deviations from the recommended schedule appear.
“This research reinforces that parents’ decisions to vaccinate their children are not isolated moments—but rather a trajectory that begins in infancy,” said Nina Masters, PhD, MPH, Senior Applied Research Scientist, Truveta. “Identifying vaccination delays early gives pediatricians an opportunity to engage families sooner, address hesitancy with evidence and compassion, and help keep children on track before gaps in protection widen. This is especially important in the context of misinformation and changing federal vaccine policy.”
Leveraging real-time EHR data for public health insight
The study demonstrates the value of de-identified electronic health record (EHR) data for monitoring vaccine coverage and identifying emerging gaps in real time. Truveta Data includes more than 120 million individuals from health systems across the country, enabling precise, timely insights into pediatric vaccination trends.
“Reliable data plays a critical role in rebuilding trust around childhood vaccination,” said Brianna Cartwright, MS, Principal Research Analyst, Truveta. “By illuminating where and when children begin to fall behind, this research helps clinicians have more informed, confident conversations with parents—and helps public health agencies focus resources where they can have the greatest impact.”
Implications for measles prevention
Measles is one of the most contagious infectious diseases, and even small declines in vaccination coverage can lead to explosive outbreaks. With cases rising sharply in 2025 and large outbreaks occurring across many parts of the country, this study underscores the urgent need to strengthen vaccination communication, address hesitancy, and support adherence to early childhood immunization schedules to protect young children who are most vulnerable.
About the study
The study analyzed de-identified electronic health records of 321,743 children born between 2017 and 2023 who received regular access to care, assessing vaccine timeliness, demographic factors, and healthcare utilization patterns through age two. The research was funded by Truveta Inc.
The full article is available in JAMA Network Open:
“Delayed or Absent First Dose of Measles, Mumps, and Rubella Vaccination”
JAMA Network Open. 2026;9(1):e2551814.
About Truveta
Truveta is a real-world intelligence company transforming medical science with unprecedented data and AI. Truveta powers breakthrough discoveries, accelerates regulatory-grade evidence, and unlocks real-time insights from a dataset uniquely built with and owned by US health systems—united by a mission of Saving Lives with Data.
Truveta membership includes Providence, Advocate Health, Trinity Health, Tenet Healthcare, Northwell Health, AdventHealth, Baptist Health of Northeast Florida, Baylor Scott & White Health, Bon Secours Mercy Health, CommonSpirit Health, Hawaii Pacific Health, HealthPartners, Henry Ford Health System, HonorHealth, Inova, Lehigh Valley Health Network, MedStar Health, Memorial Hermann Health System, MetroHealth, Novant Health, Ochsner Health, Premier Health, Saint Luke’s Health System, Sanford Health, Sentara Healthcare, Texas Health Resources, TriHealth, UnityPoint Health, Virtua Health, and WellSpan Health.
Ellie Lampton Truveta 2064092192 ellief@truveta.com
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